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On this day — November 14, 2020
Diwali: The Hindu festival of lights is the largest annual gold-buying event in India. Dhanteras (two days before Diwali) is specifically dedicated to buying gold and silver. India sees billion-dollar surges in jewellery sales over the five-day Diwali season.
Saturday — the international gold market is closed. Most retail jewellery markets, especially in Asia and the Middle East, see peak Saturday foot-traffic and physical trade activity.
Day 319 of 366 · Q4 2020 · 87.2% through the year
November 2020 gold market: Vaccine breakthroughs knock gold lower
BearishThe year's worst month as vaccines triggered a risk-on rotation.
November delivered gold's worst month of 2020. A series of highly effective COVID vaccine announcements, beginning with Pfizer–BioNTech on November 9, rotated investors out of safe havens and into reopening trades, pulling gold down to roughly $1,775.
The vaccine news was a textbook 'good news is bad news' moment for gold. By dramatically improving the economic outlook, the breakthroughs reduced the need for safe-haven insurance and lifted bond yields, both headwinds for a non-yielding asset. Yet the drop to ~$1,775 never threatened the structural bull case — money supply was still surging and real yields stayed deeply negative. Buyers who treated the vaccine dip as an opportunity rather than a top were vindicated within weeks.
What drove gold in November 2020
- Pfizer/Moderna vaccine breakthroughs
- rotation into risk assets
- rising bond yields
- gold-ETF outflows
Key events in November 2020
- Nov 9Pfizer announces 90%+ vaccine efficacy; gold drops hard
- Nov 16Moderna vaccine data adds to the safe-haven selloff
What happened next
Gold recovered through December as fresh stimulus and a weak dollar reasserted the bull case.
For gold buyers
The vaccine-driven drop to ~$1,775 was the year's second great entry point for long-term buyers who looked past the reopening euphoria.
Key terms this month
- Risk-on / risk-off:
- Market sentiment shifts: 'risk-on' favours stocks and cyclicals; 'risk-off' favours safe havens like gold.
- Good news is bad news:
- When improving economic news hurts an asset — here, vaccines lifting yields weighed on gold.
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