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On this day — February 21, 2020

Friday — typically a higher-volatility close to the week. US monthly non-farm payrolls publish on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 AM ET, the single most-watched economic data release for gold.

Day 52 of 366 · Q1 2020 · 14.2% through the year

February 2020 gold market: Calm before the COVID storm

Volatile

Steady gains unwound in a sharp late-month risk-off.

For most of February gold drifted higher to around $1,640 as COVID-19 spread beyond China and bond yields fell. In the final days of the month, however, a violent global equity selloff dragged gold down too, as investors sold winning positions to raise cash — a preview of the liquidity scramble to come.

What drove gold in February 2020

  • COVID-19 spreading globally
  • collapsing bond yields
  • late-month equity crash
  • early dash-for-cash selling
Themes#COVID-19#liquidity#risk-off

Key events in February 2020

  1. Feb 24Global markets begin steep COVID selloff
  2. Feb 28Gold drops with stocks as funds raise cash

What happened next

The late-February cash scramble was a dress rehearsal for March's full-blown liquidity crisis.

For gold buyers

Gold's late-February dip showed that in a panic's first phase even safe havens fall as investors sell what they can, not what they want to.

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