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On this day — September 20, 2024
Friday — typically a higher-volatility close to the week. US monthly non-farm payrolls publish on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 AM ET, the single most-watched economic data release for gold.
Day 264 of 366 · Q3 2024 · 72.1% through the year
September 2024 gold market: Fed's jumbo cut supercharges gold
BullishAn outsized Fed cut sent gold sprinting past $2,600.
The Federal Reserve began its easing cycle with an outsized 0.50-point cut on September 18, and gold surged past $2,600. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, and the market wasted no time pricing in more cuts to come.
The September cut mattered less for its size than for what it confirmed: the rate-cut thesis that had powered gold all year was now real, not just anticipated. Falling policy rates lower the 'opportunity cost' of holding gold — the yield an investor gives up by owning metal instead of bonds. With the Fed now easing into a still-resilient economy, gold's two biggest tailwinds, falling real yields and a softer dollar, were reinforcing each other.
What drove gold in September 2024
- Fed begins easing with a 50bp cut (Sep 18)
- falling real yields
- weaker dollar
- momentum and ETF inflows returning
Key events in September 2024
- Sep 18Fed cuts rates 50bp; gold pushes past $2,600
What happened next
Gold extended to records above $2,700 in October before the US election.
For gold buyers
September's jumbo cut validated the rate-cut thesis that had driven gold all year — the easing cycle had finally begun.
Key terms this month
- Opportunity cost:
- The return given up by choosing one asset over another. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
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