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On this day — July 25, 2023

Tuesday — a normal trading day. Tuesday is also when the CFTC publishes Commitments of Traders data for the prior week, often producing intraday movement.

Day 206 of 365 · Q3 2023 · 56.4% through the year

July 2023 gold market: Cooler inflation lifts gold

Bullish

A cooler CPI print sparked a brief relief rally.

Gold recovered toward $1,960 in July after a softer-than-expected US inflation report revived hopes that the Fed was nearly finished hiking. A weaker dollar added to the tailwind, though the rally proved short-lived.

What drove gold in July 2023

  • softer US June CPI
  • weaker dollar
  • peak-Fed hopes
  • short-covering
Themes#inflation#Fed pivot hopes#US dollar weakness

Key events in July 2023

  1. Jul 13Cooler US inflation print lifts gold toward $1,960

What happened next

Rising long-term yields reversed the gains through August and September.

For gold buyers

July's bounce was a head-fake; the bond market would soon reassert its grip on gold.