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On this day — November 25, 2020

Wednesday — a normal trading day. FOMC announcements (when scheduled) typically come on Wednesdays at 2 PM ET, often producing intraday gold volatility.

Day 330 of 366 · Q4 2020 · 90.2% through the year

November 2020 gold market: Vaccine breakthroughs knock gold lower

Bearish

The year's worst month as vaccines triggered a risk-on rotation.

November delivered gold's worst month of 2020. A series of highly effective COVID vaccine announcements, beginning with Pfizer–BioNTech on November 9, rotated investors out of safe havens and into reopening trades, pulling gold down to roughly $1,775.

The vaccine news was a textbook 'good news is bad news' moment for gold. By dramatically improving the economic outlook, the breakthroughs reduced the need for safe-haven insurance and lifted bond yields, both headwinds for a non-yielding asset. Yet the drop to ~$1,775 never threatened the structural bull case — money supply was still surging and real yields stayed deeply negative. Buyers who treated the vaccine dip as an opportunity rather than a top were vindicated within weeks.

What drove gold in November 2020

  • Pfizer/Moderna vaccine breakthroughs
  • rotation into risk assets
  • rising bond yields
  • gold-ETF outflows
Themes#COVID vaccines#risk-on rotation#reopening trade

Key events in November 2020

  1. Nov 9Pfizer announces 90%+ vaccine efficacy; gold drops hard
  2. Nov 16Moderna vaccine data adds to the safe-haven selloff

What happened next

Gold recovered through December as fresh stimulus and a weak dollar reasserted the bull case.

For gold buyers

The vaccine-driven drop to ~$1,775 was the year's second great entry point for long-term buyers who looked past the reopening euphoria.

Key terms this month

Risk-on / risk-off:
Market sentiment shifts: 'risk-on' favours stocks and cyclicals; 'risk-off' favours safe havens like gold.
Good news is bad news:
When improving economic news hurts an asset — here, vaccines lifting yields weighed on gold.